As we all know, Newt Gingrich took the South Carolina primary election on Saturday. This was a bit of a surprise since Gingrich's campaign has faced a number of serious setbacks. Back in May, most of his staff quit and his campaign was left in ruins. Gingrich decided to stick it out and it worked in his favor for awhile. In early December, Gingrich enjoyed a bump in the polls and led Romney in the polls nationally and in a number of states. Then Romney unleashed a series of negative attacks on Gingrich's record that drove Gingrich's numbers down drastically. But again Gingrich stuck it out and managed a win in South Carolina's primary.
Now many have said that South Carolina picks presidents. Since 1980, this has held true. However, all of the candidates who have won South Carolina and gone on to win the nomination have won either Iowa or New Hampshire before they took South Carolina. Now we have a three way race between Romney, Santorum and Gingrich.
The race moves on to Florida in the coming week and the battle promises to be quite nasty. The Gingrich campaign is aiming to knock out Romney and Romney's campaign promises to minimize Gingrich's win in South Carolina. Santorum is moving along and advertising his record as a consistent conservative. Ron Paul is downplaying Florida and moving on to the smaller caucus states.
Who will win Florida? I really don't know at this point. According to a new poll this morning, Gingrich has a nine point edge over Romney in Florida. That could change quickly. We saw that in South Carolina and Iowa and it could just as easily happen in Florida. Today, I will show you my terrible bias and support for the only conservative left in the race, Mitt Romney.
Romney
Mitt Romney suffered a setback on Saturday when Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary. Apparently, the voters of South Carolina forgave Gingrich for his past misdoings and voted for him over Romney. Romney expected to lose South Carolina and is holding out the hope that Florida will not follow in the footsteps of South Carolina.
The South has proven to be rather hostile territory for Romney but Florida tends to be different from the rest of the South. Lots of older folks live in Florida and that could prove helpful for Romney. Also, the evangelical vote doesn't play nearly nearly as important of a role that it does in states like Iowa and South Carolina. Romney has always polled well in Florida while Gingrich's support has surged and then fallen in the Sunshine State.
Don't get me wrong, Florida is going to be a big battle between Romney and Gingrich, but Romney has an advantage over Gingrich and that is organization. Romney has a massive Florida operation and lots of money to compete with. He has been visiting Florida since 2010 and has built up a strong base of support.
Romney has some work to do before the Florida primaries. He can no longer sit back and watch as his rivals fall by the wayside. He has to fight for the nomination now.
Romney will need to perform well in the two debates just to be safe in case the Florida voters decide that debates matter like those South Carolina voters. He will also need to go after President Obama's poor record and show voters how his private sector experience will help in turning the economy around. He needs to go after Gingrich with everything he has on Gingrich's attacks on Romney's private sector experience. Romney will also nee to explain to Florida voters why he is not a flip-flopper compared to Gingrich.
Florida is friendly territory for Romney and he can win the state if he shows that he is the one to beat Obama. Despite a recent poll that suggests Romney is nine points behind Gingrich, Romney can easily close that gap. He will have to fight for it, but I am confident that Romney can win the Florida primary. Remember, Florida has a closed primary and it will be impossible for liberals to get in there and ruin Romney's chances.
Romney is more conservative than Gingrich in many ways and he needs to let the voters know that.
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